Syria's chemical weapons: U.N. expected to release report Monday

 
The world is expected to learn Monday what really happened the day 1,400 people were allegedly gassed to death outside the Syrian capital of Damascus.

A report by U.N. weapons inspectors will likely be made public Monday morning, two diplomats told us. The inspectors were sent to to Syria figure out whether a chemical weapons attack took place on August 21.

But to many, the answer is a foregone conclusion. Both Syrian rebels and the regime have said chemical weapons have been used in the bloody civil war. And videos showing rows of bodies with no apparent injuries and children gasping for air seem to corroborate both sides' claims.

The most important question -- who may be responsible -- will go unanswered. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has already said this report will not assign blame.

The big catalyst

Even thought the August 21 attack resulted in just a fraction of the war's 100,000 deaths, it has spurred unprecedented action by world leaders.

U.S. President Barack Obama tried to rally support for targeted strikes on Syria, but later said he would hold off while diplomatic options play out.

On Saturday, the United States and Russia reached a rare agreement on Syria. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced a plan to get Syria to give up its chemical weapons stockpile.

The four-page "Framework for Elimination of Syrian Chemical Weapons" says:

-- Within one week, Syria must submit a full list of its chemical weapons stockpile

-- By November, international inspectors must be on the ground in the country

-- Before the end of November, the inspectors should complete their initial survey of the weapons sites

-- Also before the end of November, all production and mixing or filling equipment must be destroyed

-- By the middle of next year, all chemical weapons material must be destroyed.

The plan now goes to the U.N. Security Council, where members will try to craft a resolution that will keep the process under review and allow the U.N. to consider the use of force or sanctions if Syria fails to comply.

Syria claims 'victory' with plan

Syria's national reconciliation minister, Ali Haidar, called the framework a "victory" and thanked Russia for orchestrating a chemical weapons deal to avert U.S. military action, Russia's state-run RIA Novosti news agency reported.

Haidar called the deal an achievement of Russian diplomacy and "a victory for Syria won thanks to our Russian friends."

A daunting task

The process of securing and destroying Syria's cache of chemical weapons -- in the middle of a civil war -- will be a logistical nightmare.

U.S. intelligence suggests Syria has about 1,000 metric tons of chemical weapons, most of it sarin and VX stored as unmixed components, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said last week. Sarin and VX are nerve gases that can cause convulsions, paralysis, respiratory failure or death.

David Kay, a former U.N. and U.S. weapons inspector, said he thinks it'll take 500 to 1,000 people just to secure the sites. And the stockpile may be stored in some 50 different sites, according to the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism in Israel.

To complicate matters, both U.S. officials and Syrian rebels suspect the regime has been moving around some if its chemical weapons.

"I think we may know where they were, and we may know where maybe a majority are now. But look, it's going to be up to the Syrians to disclose where they are and the amounts that they have," Kay said last week.

So the Syrian regime is basically on the honor system.

Then there's the matter of where the weapons will be taken, and how.

The Russian-U.S. plan mentioned the possibility of collecting and destroying them in the coastal area of Syria, which is under government control. But who would protect the convoys headed there? Will the regime fully cooperate? And will rebels agree to a ceasefire as the weapons are being moved?

The U.S. and Russia say they're working on the details. They say they'll submit something in the next few days.

The destruction process will be carried out by personnel from both the United Nations and the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, which implements the international ban on chemical weapons use, according to Kerry-Lavrov plan.

Syria's not off the hook for possible military attack. Both Obama and French President Francois Hollande have said military force must still be an option if the diplomacy route fails.

Syria's government has denied using chemical weapons, saying instead that rebels used poison gas on its forces.

But in a report issued last week, Human Rights Watch said al-Assad's forces "were almost certainly responsible," citing photos and videos from the attack scene that pointed to weapons not known to be in rebel hands.

Opposition group wants more

Even if Syria's chemical weapons disappear, that won't stop the daily bloodshed on the ground, opposition activists say.

"The Syrian National Coalition insists that the ban of use of chemical weapons, which led to the loss of lives of more than 1,400 Syrian civilians, must be extended to ban the use of the regime air power and ballistic weapons against population centers," the opposition group said in a statement.

"The world must not allow the Assad regime to take advantage of the Russian initiative and their joining the treaty on the prohibition of the use of chemical weapons as an excuse to continue the daily slaughter of the Syrian people with impunity."